Audit Selection Report for REPRESENTATIVE TO THE 111TH UNITED STATES CONGRESS - DISTRICT 4

Proportion of the total number of votes for this contest that were cast within this county: 100.0%

See additional statistical information below...

The audit units are reported for selection in priority order, based on the thresholds below, and the "Sum of Square Roots" pseudorandom number generator using the random seed value 123456789012345 combined with the Batch sequence numbers.

Select the top 1 audit units.

Batch Seq Threshold Random Priority Type Batches Ballots Contest Ballots Betsy Markey Democratic Marilyn N. Musgrave Republican Over Under
Totals 18 11 0 1
000006 0.907125 0.189911 4.776582 ED p008_lat_ed_001 p014_lat_ed_002 None 30 18 11 0 1

Audit statistics

The "Number of audit units to audit" is based on the NEGEXP method, which is very efficient and requires selecting larger audit units with higher probability than smaller ones. The numbers given here are based on a confidence level of 75%. I.e. they are designed so the audit will either 1) find a discrepancy and call for an escalation or full hand recount, or 2) reduce the risk of confirming an incorrect outcome to (100 - 75)%, even if the tally system has been manipulated. A maximum "within-precinct-miscount" of 20% is assumed. See On Auditing Elections When Precincts Have Different Sizes, by Javed A. Aslam, Raluca A. Popa and Ronald L. Rivest


Contest: REPRESENTATIVE TO THE 111TH UNITED STATES CONGRESS - DISTRICT 4

Number of precincts: 1
Total number of votes cast:  30
Average number of votes/precinct: 30.0
Median number of votes/precinct: 30
Maximum number of votes/precinct: 30
Minimum number of votes/precinct: 30
Ratio of max/min: 1.0
margin =  23.3333333333 percent, 7.0 votes
s =  0.2  (maximum within-precinct-miscount)
alpha =  0.25  (confidence is 1 - alpha:  0.75 )

Rule of Thumb says:
    2.37650461906 precincts.
    expected workload =  150.0 votes counted.

APR says:
    b = 0.583333333333 precincts needed to hold corruption
    u =  1 precincts to audit
    expected workload =  30.0 votes
    confidence level to find one of b =  0.583333333333
    bmin = 1
    confidence level to find one of bmin =  1.0

SAFE says:
    bmin = 1
    Number of precincts to audit = u = 1
    Confidence level achieved =  1.0
    expected workload =  30.0

Negexp says:
    w = 5.04943264311
    largest probability =  0.907125356929
    smallest probability =  0.907125356929
    expected number of precincts audited =  0.907125356929
    expected workload =  27.2137607079 votes counted

PPEBWR says:
    t =  2
    largest total probability =  1.0
    smallest total probability =  1.0
    expected number of precincts audited = 1.0
    expected workload =  30.0 votes counted.
    max difference from negexp =  0.0928746430711